Novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, which has more impact and impact on China than SARS in 2003, will have an impact on China's economy and even the world economy.
The impact depends on the time to fight the epidemic and win. The fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth remain unchanged. But if the epidemic can be resolved quickly, we can still win the whole year and win the future.
The economic downturn caused by the outbreak is a high probability event, but the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth remain unchanged
Under the influence of the epidemic, China's economy will be severely damaged in the first quarter, and the economic downturn is a high probability event.
However, the basic elements of maintaining the steady development of China's economy have not changed, and the resilience, elasticity and space of economic development still exist, and will not be changed due to the outbreak. The extent to which the economy is affected throughout the year depends on the time point of epidemic control.
In general, the shorter the epidemic is under control, the greater our initiative. Strive for the stop loss in the first quarter, and the more active it is to return to the normal track in the second, third and fourth quarters.
If we can't control the epidemic, or if there is a turning point in the epidemic, we can relax our vigilance, or ignore the details of prevention and control. Once the epidemic rebounds and repeats, it will have a greater impact on the economy this year.
The epidemic has the greatest impact on the tertiary industry, but there will be substitution of industry and service supply mode
The third industry is the most severely impacted industry, among which the industries involving "eating, traveling, watching, transportation and learning" are the most affected.
In recent years, the catering industry has been a large market of more than 4 trillion yuan.
The average quarter is more than 1 trillion yuan. In the first quarter, at least 1 / 2 of the time can't eat outside or have dinner together. In the first quarter, the catering industry has at least 500 billion yuan of economic losses.
Tourism, film, hotel, film and television and other industries have been hit hard. Exhibition, transportation, education and training will be greatly affected.
However, there will be some new growth points in the tertiary industry, including online retail, online medical, online games and logistics express delivery.
Although the tertiary industry is the most seriously affected, some of them have substitutability, especially the change of service mode and purchase mode will make some industries have substitutability in service supply mode.
This time, the epidemic has changed people's purchase and consumption patterns, and some new industries may appear, while some industries will go against the trend, such as express delivery industry with explosive growth.
After a short holiday during the Spring Festival, the express logistics industry has basically returned to normal operation, and the greater consumption demand will grow faster after the epidemic.
Therefore, even if the epidemic is suppressed in the medium term, the decline of the tertiary industry will not be too large, because people's consumption demand is generally balanced.
